Does Demographic Change Matter for Growth?

 

論文發表人: 廖珮如 (加州大學洛杉磯分校經濟學系博士班)

 

http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~econseminar/GRIPSconference2008.html

 

人口變遷對經濟成長有影響嗎? 實證文獻提出許多證據支持人口變遷對經濟成長的正面影響, 但理論文獻卻付之闕如。本文利用疊代模型解釋並估計人口變遷對經濟成長的影響。與文獻不同的是, 本文的疊代模型將繁殖率(fertility)內生化, 並考慮人口變遷影響經濟成長會透過三個途徑: 人口年齡結構的變化, 物質資本累積, 與人力資本累積。利用本文建構的模型, 我們試圖回答兩個問題: 人口變遷對經濟成長的貢獻有多少? 在本文所討論的三個途徑中, 哪一途徑最為重要? 我們選擇台灣作為數量分析的一個例子。分析結果顯示, 在1970-2004年之間, 人口變遷每年大約可產生1.3%的人均國內生產毛額。此外, 我們也發現生產技術進步和人口變遷之間存在著重要的交互作用。當人口變遷的同時,若生產技術轉變成較為技術密集的生產方式, 它們之間的交互作用會促進更多的人力資本累積。最後, 當一國的生產技術為技術密集時,在三個途徑中,人力資本比人口結構變化更為重要。

 

How important is the demographic transition for economic growth? To answer this question, this paper constructs a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility in which demographic change affects growth through three channels: changes in the age composition of the population, the accumulation of physical capital, and the accumulation of human capital. In the case of Taiwan, our quantitative analysis suggests that during the period 1970-2004, demographic change contributed growth in GDP per capita by about 1.3 percent per year. We also find important interactions between demographic change and technological progress. When production technologies become more skill intensive as the demographic transition occurs, the interaction promotes human-capital accumulation. In this case, the human-capital channel is more important than changes in the dependency ratio.